Jamie Spurrell
Table of Contents
Some, yes. Verified research puts the click-through hit on informational search results somewhere between a third and half, depending on which study you look at. But that's not the same as the site-ending collapse the scariest headlines describe, and the size of the hit depends heavily on what kind of query you're talking about. A "how do I" search and a "near me" search aren't affected the same way, and the trend over the past year hasn't moved in a straight line downward either.
This is the fourth piece in our AI search optimization series. The first covered the AEO/GEO hype generally, the second looked at whether an llms.txt file is worth building, and the third walked through how AI search actually crawls and cites content. This one answers the question underneath all of it: is this actually going to hurt your traffic, and if so, how much.
What the most-cited data actually shows
Ahrefs analyzed 300,000 keywords, half that trigger an AI Overview and half that don't, comparing Google Search Console data from March 2024 to March 2025. For AI-Overview-triggering keywords, the top organic result's desktop click-through rate dropped from 7.3% to 2.6%, a 34.5% relative decline. That's real. It's also worth knowing what the study itself says about its limits: Search Console can't separate an AI Overview's clicks and impressions from the rest of a site's data, so this is a before-and-after comparison, not a controlled experiment, and it's scoped specifically to informational queries, since over 99% of AI-Overview-triggering searches are informational in the first place. The authors also flag that today's numbers might be closer to a floor than a permanent trend, since novelty effects on new search features tend to fade.
Independent confirmation comes from outside the SEO industry entirely. Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research organization with no product to sell off the finding, tracked real browsing behavior from 900 U.S. adults in March 2025. When a Google AI summary appeared, people clicked a traditional organic result in 8% of searches, versus 15% without one, roughly half as often. Clicking a link inside the summary itself was rarer still, just 1% of visits. People were also more likely to end their browsing session right after a summary appeared (26%) than when it didn't (16%).
Zero-click search is rising, but AI Overviews aren't the whole story
Zero-click search, meaning a search that ends without any click at all, isn't new and isn't caused by AI Overviews alone. SparkToro's analysis of Similarweb clickstream data found 68% of U.S. Google searches from January through April 2026 ended with no click, up from about 60% in a 2024 comparison. SparkToro is upfront about the limits of that comparison too: the two years relied on different underlying data panels, so a direct year-over-year read should be taken cautiously, and the researchers say plainly they can't isolate how much of the increase is specifically caused by AI Overviews versus other zero-click features, like featured snippets and local packs, that were already reducing clicks long before AI Overviews existed.
The trend hasn't moved in one direction
It's tempting to assume a number like this only gets worse over time. The data doesn't support that. Seer Interactive has tracked 53 brands across 5.47 million queries and 2.43 billion impressions since January 2025, and found click-through on AI-Overview-triggering queries bottomed out at 1.3% in December 2025, then climbed to 2.4% by February 2026, an 85% jump in two months. Seer is careful not to call this a recovery, describing it instead as a leveling off, and warns against forecasting a trend from two months of data. The same tracking found something directly useful: brands actually cited within an AI Overview earn roughly 120% more organic clicks per impression on that query than brands that aren't cited. Getting cited doesn't fully offset a lost click, but it's a real, measurable difference, and it's the same mechanism our piece on how AI search actually finds and cites content already covers.
The impact isn't the same for every query
Every tracker that's looked at this agrees on the direction: AI Overviews show up far more often on informational "what," "how," and "why" queries than on commercial or transactional ones, and local "near me" searches are more likely to trigger a map result than an AI Overview at all. Trackers disagree meaningfully on the exact size of that gap. One widely-cited industry report puts informational-query AI Overview appearance around 71%, versus roughly 8% for commercial queries and 2% for transactional ones. Other trackers put those same categories at different, sometimes notably lower, numbers. Rather than repeat one tracker's precise figure as if it were settled science, the honest takeaway is simpler: if your site's traffic mostly comes from people looking to buy, book, or visit, you're less exposed than a purely informational blog would be. If it comes from broad "how do I" searches, you're more exposed, and worth watching more closely.
Google disputes the framing, without much to check it against
Google's own leadership has pushed back on the "AI is killing traffic" narrative directly. Nick Fox, Google's SVP of Knowledge and Information, has stated publicly that Google continues to send billions of clicks to the web every day through Search. Worth including for balance, but worth being just as honest about its limits: Google hasn't published a methodology, a breakdown by query type, or any way for a site owner to check that claim against their own analytics. It sits alongside the independent studies above as a claim, not something that resolves them.
What actually helps, regardless of the exact number
None of this changes the answer the rest of this series keeps landing on. A real, measurable click-through decline exists for informational queries, its exact size depends on which study and which query type you're looking at, and the trend isn't purely downward. What moves the needle either way is the same as it's always been: a crawlable site, a clear and specific answer near the top of the page, real expertise behind what's written, and genuinely useful content that earns a citation when an AI Overview does show up for your query. Our SEO basics checklist covers exactly that ground. There's no separate "AI Overview defense" tactic to chase instead.
Not sure your site has those fundamentals covered? That's exactly what our free Website Grader checks.
Frequently Asked Questions
For informational search queries, likely somewhat, based on verified research: one large study found a 34.5% relative decline in top-result click-through after AI Overviews rolled out, and an independent Pew Research study found people click traditional results about half as often when an AI summary appears. The exact size varies by study and by query type.
No. Every tracker that's studied this agrees AI Overviews appear far more often on informational "how/what/why" queries than on commercial or transactional ones, and local "near me" searches are more likely to trigger a map result than an AI Overview. Trackers disagree on the exact percentages, but the direction is consistent.
Not in a straight line. One ongoing tracking study found click-through on AI-Overview queries bottomed out in December 2025 and climbed 85% by February 2026, though the researchers call that a leveling off rather than a recovery and caution against forecasting from two months of data.
Partially. The same tracking study found brands cited within an AI Overview earn roughly 120% more organic clicks per impression on that query than uncited brands. It doesn't fully replace a lost click, but it's a real, measurable advantage, and it depends on the same crawlability and content-quality fundamentals that have always mattered for search.
The same things that have always helped a site rank and earn clicks: make sure your site is crawlable, answer the reader's question clearly and specifically near the top of the page, back it with real expertise, and keep content current. There's no separate technical fix for AI Overviews specifically.
